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14 October 2024

Potential victims of trafficking and modern slavery, key findings from IOM data analysis for the first half of 2024

In the week leading to #AntiSlaveryDay2024, on Friday 18th October, IOM UK releases its latest analysis of the National Referral Mechanism (NRM), the UK’s official system to identify and support victims of modern slavery and trafficking.

 

Fact #1 | Vietnamese have been one of the most common nationalities referred to the National Referral Mechanism (NRM) for the last decade. However, referrals from Vietnam in the first half of 2024 reached record highs.

The first half of 2024 saw record high numbers of Vietnamese nationals referred to the National Referral Mechanism (NRM), the UK’s official system to identify and support victims of modern slavery and trafficking. In the first six months of this year the number of Vietnamese nationals referred to the NRM has already exceeded the total for the whole of 2023.    

Although the trend of Vietnamese falling victim to global human trafficking crime, with the UK being one of the arrival countries, is not a new one -  they have been among the most referred nationalities for a long time - in 2024 new NRM data sets were published through the UK Data Service which recorded also the different countries that people were exploited in before they arrived in the UK. An initial review of this information for Vietnamese referrals in 2024 suggests a continuation of the routes mapped in previous research (1) with China, Russia and France among the reported countries of exploitation before arriving in the UK. 

  1. by Anti-Slavery International and ECPAT UK and IOM and the University of Bedfordshire in 2019 

 

 

  • IOM already carries out extensive counter-trafficking activities in Vietnam, in collaboration with Government partners and local communities, with funding from the UK Home Office. 

  • Monitoring the referral of Vietnamese nationals for the rest of 2024 will be key to better understand trends, including on countries and routes where exploitation occurs before Vietnamese nationals arrive in the UK, an information that could help better inform national counter-trafficking policies in countries of origin, destination and transit, as well as strengthen international cooperation.   

 

Fact #2 | Two-thirds of people who were able to challenge their negative Reasonable Grounds decision in the first half of 2024 had the decision overturned, a high percentage which raises concerns regarding the quality of the decision-making process. 

Since the start of 2023 there has been an unprecedented fall in the percentage of people that received a positive Reasonable Grounds decision (RG) from the NRM. A positive decision is required to access specialist support for victims of modern slavery. The fall has been attributed to the introduction of new legislation which changed the way that decisions are made.  

However, the percentage of negative decisions which have been overturned following a request from the potential victim or a representative for the Home Office to make a new decision on the case has reached record highs. Two-thirds (66%) of 373 negative decisions which were reviewed in 2024 were positive.  

This data is important because it raises concerns about the quality of decision making and questions of whether and how some of the practical limitations to having a negative decision reconsidered can be overcome.  

Fact #3 | 74% of Reasonable Grounds decisions in the first half of 2024 were positive for child exploitation referrals. However, this varied greatly by age: generally, the older the person was at the time of referral, the less likely they were to receive a positive decision.   

In the first half of 2024, 74% of reasonable ground decisions for all referrals of potential child exploitation cases were positive. 

However, IOM’s analysis of the data finds that whereas nine out of ten people aged between 0-14 at the time of referral received a positive decision, only three out of ten people aged 45-54 received a positive decision when referred as a potential victim of child exploitation.   

Prior to the changes to how reasonable grounds decisions are made which were introduced at the start of 2023, there was little difference in the percentage of positive decisions between the age groups at the time of referral. In 2022, nine out of ten decisions were positive across all age groups.  

While there is a general trend that older groups were less likely to receive a positive decision, the percentage of positive decisions for those aged 18-24 was lower than both the 25-34 and 35-44 age groups.  

  • Further investigation is needed to understand why young adults who may have been very recently exploited as children have such a significantly lower rate of positive decisions than those referred aged 15-17.   

 

Fact #4 | The gap between the number of positive Conclusive Grounds decisions awarded by the Immigration Enforcement Competent Authority (IECA) and Single Competent Authority (SCA) continues to increase. 

There are two bodies within the Home Office which make NRM decisions. The Single Competent Authority and the Immigration Enforcement Competent Authority. The IECA was established in November 2021 and only makes decisions for cases involving foreign nationals.

A Conclusive Grounds decision is the second, and final decision which formally recognises an individual as a victim of modern slavery.

Initially both decision makers had very high rates of positive decisions, with the IECA more likely to make a positive decision. However, the percentage of positive decisions by the IECA fell considerably lower than the SCA at the end of 2022.  The percentage of positive decisions by the IECA in the first half of 2024 reached new lows with only one in five decisions being positive in both quarter 1 and quarter 2. On the other hand, three quarters of decisions by the Single Competent Authority were positive.

 

For more information, please contact:

Abir Soleiman, IOM UK, asoleiman@iom.int